This is a difficult question to answer without much data-gathering research to back up any possible scenarios. Anyone savvy at writing research grants? We could call it, "Anticipating the Possible Deleterious Effects of Proposed Border Crossing Restrictions" and maybe get SANDAG to pony up $750,000 to do the research. (How do you like that word, "Deleterious?" Pretty snazzy, huh? Those are the kind of words you have to use when you write research grant proposals and are asking the taxpayers to waste hard-earned tax dollars on worthless research.) Then we'd hang around la Zona all day and night and ask the chicas lots of questions about how many American hombres, Mexican hombres, and International hombres they see each day and how much each pays, etc., etc., etc. Of course, in the interests of furthering the cause of knowledge, we'd have to do some of our own hands-on research, also, to, you know, authenticate the findings. We could also interview lots of guys who visit web sites dedicated to mongering in TJ, too. I wonder where we'd find them?
Without the grant, any possible scenarios we propose would be groundless speculations. So I suggest we get to work on it right away! Anyone game?
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Okay, bringing reality to the fore, let's assume we don't get the grant. Let us try to envision Bohemian's first unlikely scenario that Americans were totally banned from la Zona. How would it affect the commerce? It would certainly change drastically. From my experience, many of the men cruising la Zona are Americans. But not all are Americans. There are many who I assume to be locals. And there seem to be some -- again, I am assuming -- from other than America & Mexico. Ex-patriots from the maquiladoras? Tourists visiting California and San Diego who are spending some time in TJ? Not sure. Just guessing. In any case, the total loss of American hombres would certainly shrink the amount of commerce in la Zona drastically but it would no doubt still survive, albeit in a much, much smaller form. My guess is the BGs and the bars themselves would take a far greater hit than the SGs. And the Meet-Me-At-McDonald's Escorts would probably be reduced to a mere whisper of what they are now.
In light of the recent proposals to continue to increase security at the border crossing, Bohemian's second scenario of more restrictions is more probable. The current proposal is to require passports by June 2009. I submit that those of us close to TJ would readily get a passport -- it's not that hard -- and just go along as we have done in the past. (I already have my passport and always use it to cross back into the U.S.) It's the folks from Oklahoma City and Boise and Dayton (What need do they have of a passport in the Heartland of the Good Ol' U. S. of A.?!) who are in San Diego for a conference who will be forced to forego the day/night side-trip South of the Border. Although it will hurt, this scenario will have a much less pronounced effect on the amount of commerce on all involved.
So rejoice, Brethren! La Zona will continue to thrive in TJ in spite of the injurious attempts to keep us from forsaking our homeland in search of our admirable goal of "improving U.S. / Mexican relations, one (or possibly two) chicas at a time." And given our own futile attempts at voluntarily trying to reduce our manifold sojourns through hapless New Year Resolutions, there is no doubt we will continue helping to keep TJ's economy thriving, (one or possibly two) chicas at a time!
Drunkenly submitted,
gmbrldx