Idk if it's right forum or not , here are my views on this harsh step of modiJI :
I'm pretty sure what is going to happen......India will not have community wide spread(maybe nos. In 50000's) n modi will take all d pride that it is due to his decision arguing ke widout curfew no.s would have been lacs.
I was researching the numbers of other countries, while it's in 100's in India . It's in 1000's most other places wen they had curfew.
Other middle eastern countries have contained the numbers widout curfew. Maybe it's too early to have country wide lockdown just to get pat on the back......I used to support modi but nomore.
You are right. That is how Modi's capitalist lobby works.
Scientific View
The Corona virus is infecting certain pockets. The state governments are doing a reasonably okay job of controlling it. Our numbers are still under 1000. Scientifically it has been observed that Novel Corona only kills people whose immunity is compromised. So the elderly or already sick people are main victims. The others not only recover but their bodies turn immune to it. It is the same principle on which vaccination works.
Political View
The nation's economy has already been completely compromised.
- Demonetization killed the poor laborers, small traders, informal markets who used to operate below the tax radar and hence would keep things cheaper.
- GST tightened the screws around this same market further. It killed the informal economy. That resulted in inflation on one side and unemployment on the other. Many OEMs have stopped selling parts and merchandise to small traders with turnover below 40 lacs since they don't file GST. The OEM gets input credit back only when the trader files his GST.
- The Bank NPAs caused further problems.
- The lack of leniency to Telecom players reduced them from 12 players to just 3 leaving 5 lac people jobless
- GDP is at an all-time low since small-scale industries now cannot operate below the tax radar.
- Fintech Startups have been compromised due to no-MDR below Rs. 2000 rule
- India's ratings have been downgraded by most international ratings agencies
So now how do you wash your hands off all this. Use the Corona scare. Ride the wave with another drastic step. Put all the blame of the entire crash on it. Convert the adversity to opportunity.
That is the game Modi has played.
Economic View
The only industry that was making money right now were IT Offshoring companies, BPOs etc who get work from abroad.
- This drastic step will ensure that all clients will now look for other outsourcing destinations to split their offshored work to mitigate future risk.
- Expect work will fly off to Sri Lanka, Philippines, Nepal etc
- Investor Capital has begun exiting due to which Sensex and Nifty have tanked.
- Some companies will fold up due to their inability to take the loss of 1 month of no revenue. Remember, Rent, Lease etc is still going on.
- Mass unemployment
Who Benefits?
The Ambani, Adani, Essar etc capitalist lobby that controls elements within BJP will benefit from this.
Mass Unemployment : Cheaper Labour
Companies going bankrupt : Less competition
Small Traders getting pushed out : No price pressure or price competition
Stock Market crash: Opportunity to buy stocks cheap and control such companies
Less offshoring work to India: Reduced Forex reserves. Dollar price going up. Reduce competition from Chinese suppliers etc
Reduced Foreign Investment : Choke down the competition from the middle-class, brilliant startup guys who are making life difficult for the old money