Trump is the GOP right now. But the problem is that the GOP has shrunk in size as it shifted further to the right and the moderates are leaving the GOP and now calling themselves independents. The Independents are the largest pool of voters in the US
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)
news.gallup.com
No candidate can win the General election without the moderate swing vote and it doesn’t help his cause when those moderate leaning Republicans are becoming alienated by his followers and being called RINOs. His right wing is trying to expel or marginalize the group of voters and the current moderate leaning Representatives and Senators they actually need to win the Presidency and regain power in the Senate and House.
The first time around the voters didn’t know what they’d get in Trump. Now they do. But what the GOP thinks of Trump is irrelevant as it’s an insufficient number of votes to win the Presidency and that group of people are the only ones he’s directing his message to. This time around voters know exactly what they’ll get in Trump and the moderates are looking in another direction than Trump. The moderates will take the “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” approach. Additionally, more and more voters are the youth vote and people of colour and Trump is not addressing the needs of this changing demographics so they are given no incentive to vote Trump.
, April 23, 2021 A national poll of America’s 18-to-29 year olds released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School shows that despite the state of our politics, hope for America among young people is rising dramatically, especially among people of color. As more young...
iop.harvard.edu
gerrymandering can help the House and Senate seat vote but it’s still a total popular vote in each state for the electoral college and Presidency. They may make it harder to vote for this demographic (all in person, no Sunday votes) but the Dems can just get more people to help mobilize the vote.
The wildcard in all this will be who the Democrats select to run as we can safely say it won’t be Biden. It will likely be Harris but that’s still a long way off.