Stock Picks II

[sexpuppy]

LA.V is a small cap stock on TSX Venture so it's very open to manipulation. I also found it a bit amusing we have a Christopher Moltisanto altar and in Sorpano he ran a pump & dump scheme lol

 

[OG_funguy]

I have both Arc and Cenovus...Cenovus comes with some baggage but very under valued. Nevertheless, oil is a cyclical play... just can't be too greedy, I'll start to unwind in the next couple of quarters. Most oil companies are still very under valued based on historical metrics and are literally printing money these days. The more efficient companies make money at $45 oil and I don't think we're going there any time soon.

The stock market is in a very bad spot right now. Interest rates are going up, world growth is dropping due to the war and sanctions on Russia. Exploration stocks like this one are especially vulnerable. Low volume also is a problem. Only thing going up is oil stocks. Look at Cenovus or some of the other down stream stocks like Arc if you want anything that will make you money.

 

[paddlehead]

Yes, pigs get slaughtered so its always wise to stay diversified and disciplined. However, market timing can also create problems.

If you are interested in understanding why the supply/demand equation is so out of wack, check out White Tundra Investments on youtube or at the website. For free, this guy has hours of research on why oil supply cannot be increased in the short term and why demand is increasing. I have no interest in this investment site and I dont think he is selling anything either, so I see it as independent information. Make your picks based on the best information that you can find.

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

So the market poseurs and burner accounts here are suggesting LA.V is a pump and dump? Interesting how the stock has been on a steady, healthy move up since last September based on improving fundamentals and increased comms. Where’s the dump? The founding family and institutions own most of the company so it’s a tight floater. These people are not selling - they keep buying.

And who would have thought that one of the most reputable mining executives in Canada, R. Michael Jones, who served on the BCSC has apparently joined LA.V to perpetrate the pump and dump alleged by the burners/trolls.


Welcome to Los Andes Copper Website

“Additionally, Mr. Jones was appointed to the BC Securities Policy Advisory Committee for the British Columbia Securities Commission, which regulates more than 65 per cent of the reporting mining issuers in Canada.”

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

For those following LA.V - corporate update just out on the wires.

Los Andes Copper Corporate Update

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - March 29, 2022) - Los Andes Copper Ltd. ( TSXV: LA) (OTCQX: LSANF) ("Los Andes"...

www.newsfilecorp.com

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

For those following LA.V - corporate update just out on the wires.

Los Andes Copper Corporate Update

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - March 29, 2022) - Los Andes Copper Ltd. ( TSXV: LA) (OTCQX: LSANF) ("Los Andes"...

www.newsfilecorp.com

I’ve had a few people pm me to ask what I think of the news, so I will share here.

Firstly, the new executive chairman controls 53% of the shares of LA.V so their interest is aligned with shareholders and that’s why I personally think they have huge interest to get top dollar for ultimately selling the company. So this is not like other companies where insiders want to remain and collect salaries.

But that said, BIG thing for me is that they have enough drill results to complete the PFS. Meaning, if they can’t do anymore drilling (worst case scenario given the ridiculous rabbit/cat environment news last week), they can still finish the PFS and that will make the discount to NPV that it is trading at much less. Should make it go to 50% discount to NPV after PFS is complete. Which is around $45 per share at 50% discount at $3.50 copper.

If they can continue drilling (get the environment injunction lifted in short term which they are addressing), there is a chance of them hitting on the new drill zones to make it multiple of what they have. So as is, it’s still a 3 bagger from where the share price is now (again at $3.50 copper). At $4 copper I think should be $75 to $90.

The other item not addressed in the corporate update news is the prospect of uplisting to senior exchange which the CEO has made clear is a priority - the senior exchange listing (once it happens) will also make m&a discussions easier and bring in more institutions and liquidity (though the float will always remain tight given the founders own 53%).

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

Check out this interview with Warren Gilman, CEO of Queen’s Road Capital - he is one of the most reputable mining financiers in the country. The whole clip is worth watching but after the 5th minute he talks about his $5 million investment in Los Andes Copper.

And by the way, Warren Gilman is also on the board of directors of LA.v.

News out today that Queen’s Road Capital has put up an additional $4 million into LA.V. Warren Gilman had wanted more shares and he’s got it now.

What I like about this is the big 30% premium on the convert - $19.67! If someone so close to LA.V is content with that kind of premium, it continues to validate company being undervalued. As well, Gilman likely isn’t concerned about the rabbit injunction issue affecting company’s path to salability, so that’s a second positive. And lastly this cash will ensure they can complete the PFS which is what is needed to sell the company at an attractive price (which I covered in my previous post). So all in all, excellent news.

Queen's Road Capital Announces Follow-on Investment in Los Andes Copper Ltd.

Hong Kong, Hong Kong--(Newsfile Corp. - March 30, 2022) - Queen's Road Capital Investment Ltd. (TSXV: QRC) (the "Company" or "QRC") is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Los Andes Copper Ltd. ("Los Andes") (TSXV: LA) whereby the Company will invest an additional...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

So, just so anyone interested in this stock, should know that it is very high risk. It has no proven reserves. Morningside stock analysis says it is a $5 stock. While copper is definately a commodity that has been very important in the world economy recovery post covid, the safer stocks offering proven copper reserves are Teck Resources, and First Quantum Minerals. This stock is looking like a classic pump and dump, especially with the low stock volume. Buyer beware.

Teck Resources having issues with rabbits in Chile just like LA.V.

Teck’s Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile faces environmental charges

Chile’s environmental regulator has filed eight charges claiming Teck failed to comply with vegetation and animals protection measures.

www.mining.com

Four of the preliminary charges are considered “serious” and they include the allegedly deficient rescue and relocation of vizcachas, rodents native to South America belonging to the chinchillas family.

 

[wav]

What’s happening to LA.V since the last post?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[paddlehead]

LA is down 16% in the past month. Teck is up 2% over the same period, 12% in the last five days.

 

[paddlehead]

Wescan WCE looks very interesting.

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

What’s happening to LA.V since the last post?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s consolidating here in the $15 range. Still up 100%+ from September (one of the top gainers in sector); and down slightly from the $17 highs when the company got the news regarding rabbits (FWIW, Teck got hit with the exact same issue re: rabbits so this is a Chile environment issue, not a company specific issue).

Here’s my take on catalysts:

1) uplist to senior exchange is still in the cards for near term. This will bring more attention and liquidity to the stock. CEO has been clear, this is a priority.
2) additional drill results coming - based on the last update, feels like the drilling will only make the asset more valuable, so this is positive news for investors. Tough to predict timing, but my best guess is a few weeks or a month maybe before news.
3) update on the rabbit environmental issue. Best case scenario is that courts will allow the additional drilling to continue - so problem solved; worst case is they don’t which in my eyes is the only negative risk the company faces (partly priced in). However, the company is cashed up and can complete the PFS without additional drilling. So the show will go on no matter what happens with the rabbits.
4) the plan to complete the PFS and then prep for sale of company will happen no matter what. This is what management and major shareholders are focused on. Given we’re at .15x nav vs peers at .50x nav - the valuation for sale will be significantly higher than current price. Minimum $30-45 and possibly much more.

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

More good news on macros for copper.

Cochilco raises 2022 copper price forecast to $4.40/lb

For 2023, Cochilco projected a price of $3.95 per pound, up from $3.80 in January.

www.mining.com

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

LA is down 16% in the past month. Teck is up 2% over the same period, 12% in the last five days.

I’m bullish on metals. Base metals are going to have a great year and precious metals too. However, since you’re comparing two companies I like, may as well show a broader data point.

 

[mar91]

Most all sectors will participate in the run up including commodities (notably silver, gold and base metals like copper), except for oil which topped recent near $130 due to geo-politics with Ukraine. Oil will retrace back to $60-$70s by summer (demand destruction, increased supply, Ukraine settling) so energy stocks will be among the lone underperforming sectors - oil stocks are a sell at current levels IMO.

I'm not as certain that oil will retrace to the $60 - $70 range. I think it is going to stay in the $90 - $110 range for a while. We are starting the change over from winter to summer gas which usually draws down inventories during the change over period. Also, because of the lack of investment over the last few years, mainly because oil is now bad according to climate change, not a lot of new production can come on very quickly. At the current price at the pump people are going to complain and it might even affect their voting in upcoming elections, but I do not think the prices are high enough to stop people from driving. With everyone locked down for the last couple of years, people want to get out and driving is a big part of that, or flying. With the current price for oil and the Canadian dollar still low against the US, many of the Canadian companies are really driving free cash flow. With this cash they can pay down debt more quickly, buy back shares aggressively, or increase dividends. I don't see many radically increasing capital expenditures because of the lack of pipelines to transport and the current government is not friendly to the sector.

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

I'm not as certain that oil will retrace to the $60 - $70 range. I think it is going to stay in the $90 - $110 range for a while. We are starting the change over from winter to summer gas which usually draws down inventories during the change over period. Also, because of the lack of investment over the last few years, mainly because oil is now bad according to climate change, not a lot of new production can come on very quickly. At the current price at the pump people are going to complain and it might even affect their voting in upcoming elections, but I do not think the prices are high enough to stop people from driving. With everyone locked down for the last couple of years, people want to get out and driving is a big part of that, or flying. With the current price for oil and the Canadian dollar still low against the US, many of the Canadian companies are really driving free cash flow. With this cash they can pay down debt more quickly, buy back shares aggressively, or increase dividends. I don't see many radically increasing capital expenditures because of the lack of pipelines to transport and the current government is not friendly to the sector.

That's why oil is where it is. What we are aware of now is already discounted in the price. A slowing global economy coupled with demand destruction (because of high gasoline prices) is what is ahead as well as a potential settlement in Ukraine. Also possible there may be policy changes on supply restrictions.

I reiterate my call that oil is headed to $60s this year.

 

[mar91]

That's why oil is where it is. What we are aware of now is already discounted in the price. A slowing global economy coupled with demand destruction (because of high gasoline prices) is what is ahead as well as a potential settlement in Ukraine. Also possible there may be policy changes on supply restrictions.

I reiterate my call that oil is headed to $60s this year.

Understand your thoughts, we will see as the year goes by.

 

[Christopher Moltisanto]

I've had a few guys PM me re: picks on precious metals. For those interested, here are my top holdings:

ABX - $31.79
FR - $17.94
AEM - $83.01
PAAS - $37.69

These are all big caps -- based on my belief that gold/silver prices are headed for a big run this year, I expect these names to do well.

 

[paddlehead]

Global oil inventories have decreased for 14 consecutive months. February was a disaster. Demand is growing. People will travel this summer. A deal with Iran is unlikely, OPEC has no excessive supply, no one except India will buy Russian oil and the American frackers aren't drilling. I agree that there will be destruction in demand, but at $180 per barrel, likely in the fall. Most Canadian oil stocks are priced at $60 per barrel currently. Its easily the best value in the market. Best gold stock is CMCL, solid dividend and growing reserves. See you in September and we will see what happens.

 

[paddlehead]

Fellow members of this website, here is a proposal for your consideration. On Monday, buy 1000 shares of Wescan ticker symbol WCE. About 31 cents at close on Friday per share or $310 for those one thousand shares. In six months, when they are worth $700, you can send me a thank you or just use it to fill up your gas tank on your SUV. This is not investment advice, but I think it will work out.